Playoff fortunes can flip faster than a line change. This week’s movers show teams locking in seeding while others slide toward the bubble; the numbers tell the story.
NHL
Rising
- Colorado — COL (100.0%), 120 proj pts: Colorado’s Monte Carlo ceiling is obvious; 120 projected points cements them as the class of the league and reduces variance late in the season.
- Anaheim — ANA (99.5%), 96 proj pts: Anaheim’s 99.5% probability turns a projected mid-90s point total into practical security; they’re moved from hopeful to expected entrant.
Falling
- Vegas — VGK (88.1%), 91 proj pts: An 88.1% number still looks healthy, but a 91-point projection leaves little margin for error with stronger clubs piling up wins.
- Edmonton — EDM (73.7%), 90 proj pts: At 73.7% and only 90 projected points, Edmonton sits in the riskiest spot among teams holding a playoff edge; a short losing streak could cost them big.
NBA
Rising
- Los Angeles Lakers — LAL (98.7%): LAL’s 98.7% puts them effectively locked; their remaining schedule can be used for lineup work rather than survival mode.
- Denver — DEN (97.4%): Denver at 97.4% carries a healthy cushion that lets them preserve rotation flexibility down the stretch.
Falling
- Toronto — TOR (59.8%): TOR at 59.8% is a true swing team — a couple of wins vault them into comfort, a couple of losses drop them into the play-in grind.
- Atlanta — ATL (41.6%): ATL’s 41.6% probability makes them a clear faller this week; they need a short-term run to reverse a slide toward elimination risk.
One Team to Watch Next Week
Pittsburgh — PIT (86.0%), 100 proj pts: Pittsburgh sits at 86.0% with a 100-point projection — safe-ish but vulnerable. That combination means a single prolonged skid or a mini-hot streak will swing their outlook sharply; their next four games will tell whether they lock in seeding or get dragged back into noise.